Programming Notes: Morning Money will not be issued on October 11 (Monday). October 12 (Tuesday) will return to the normal schedule.
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Welcome to the working day – With (temporary) debt transactions restricted, economic attention is directed to Friday’s September jobs report, and inflationary pressures continue to emerge, reducing unemployment from 5.2% to 5, 1%. Hourly wages are expected to increase by 0.4%.
Moody’s Mark Zandy email: “Employment in September increased by almost 500,000. This is an increase from the employment increase of 235,000 in August, but the average monthly increase in employment since the start of the year. year is less than nearly 600,000 Wild. One of the maps is the impact of Hurricane Ida on work, but the storm occurred before the BLS investigation week.
“The Delta pandemic wave has hit the labor market recovery, resulting in reduced travel and a burden on restaurants and cinemas. The already scrambled global supply chain is further disrupted by the delta and chipped. And other components and equipment shortages… Fortunately, Delta’s worst financial blow is at hand as infections and hospitalizations recede. ”
Via Goldman Sachs: “We estimate that the non-farm payroll increased by 600,000 in September, exceeding the consensus of +500,000. The demand for labor remains very strong and unemployment benefit is increased on September 5. We believe the national expiration has boosted effective labor supply and job growth, as in July and August in states that ended early federal allowances.
“We expect the number to increase 200,000 times tomorrow and more in October. We also believe that the reopening of schools contributed about 150,000 people to employment growth in September. Nonetheless, the signs of using big data were mixed and the food business only picked up slightly. ”
Don’t read too much – Ian Shepherdson from the Pantheon: “[T]Today’s payroll report has nothing to say about the bigger picture for the months to come. The report captures labor market activity in the early stages of the recession in the cases of Covid Delta, and the study was conducted just a week after the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits and other programs led by Covid .
“In short, the data reflects a fluid labor market and gives little clue as to how key variables will perform over the next few months, but that’s what both markets and critics are obsessed with. Won’t stop. ”
Debt Limit Negotiation Stack – Burgess Everett, Kamala Emma, Nicholas Wu: “The Senate has continued to review its short-term debt ceiling… Congress has taken an important step to end the financial blunder until December. Temporary Patch Overcome the Republican Senate obstruction of Congress, 61-38, and set the stage for a low-drama final vote that should only go to the Democratic Party, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker.
“The Chamber of Commerce does not impose a two-month debt limit fix on Democrats until after a few hours of fierce flogging by the GOP to ensure at least 10 Senate Republicans proceed with the bill.” Gives the possibility of settling the invoice with a majority threshold. ”
IMF drama – Victoria Gida: “The Board of Directors of the International Monetary Fund will meet on Friday to consider whether Managing Director Christalina Georgieva should continue her work. She knows the debate.
“George Eva is associated with a scandal involving China and an annual report that ranks countries as investment destinations, dating back to his time as CEO of the World Bank. Independent report from the law firm. The book has been confused by the head of the IMF since last month when it found out that World Bank staff were being pressured by senior executives to change important data to improve rankings in China and the rest of the world. other countries. The pressure is building. ”
Wall Street Celebrates Debt Limiting Transactions – With Caitlin Ostrov of the WSJ
Michael Worsthorn: “Major U.S. Stock Index Says Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer could postpone government default standoff for months as lawmakers reach agreement to expand government limits. short-term debt. After that, it increased on Thursday. ”
China’s decline under Evergrande – Reuters Andrew Galbraith and Vidya Ranganathan: “Bonds and stocks issued by Chinese developers fell on Friday, due to the debt problems of Chinese group Evergrande, which regulators are struggling to raise as the onshore market comes back from a week’s vacation. There was little clue as to how to propose to contain the infection. ”
Tesla ships to Austin – Danahar and Gabriel Coppola of Bloomberg: “Tesla will be moving its headquarters to Austin, Texas. In Austin, Texas, a new Model Y and an upcoming Cybertruck plant are nearing completion, with the Golden State home for 18 years. After that, I moved from California.
“Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk announced a move to the Austin plant on Thursday at a meeting of shareholders of an electric vehicle maker. Founded in 2003, Tesla was initially based in San Carlos, California. In 2009, a year before the IPO, the company announced a start-up move to Palo Alto, a suburb of lush Silicon Valley, home to Stanford University and several venture capital firms. . Become the most valuable automaker, Texas, located halfway between the two coasts, has become the centerpiece of the United States. ”
College students find a job boom – NYT Nelson D. Schwartz and Coral Murphy Marcos: “For many students, the onset of last year’s pandemic did more than disrupt research, threaten health and shut down campus life. The usual route from class to work has been closed.
“Campus recruiting visits have been halted and the recession caused by the coronavirus has prevented companies from hiring. However, this year, white-collar workers have increased their numbers and several offers to job seekers. Older and recent graduates are in high demand due to the fact that recruitment is well above the level of last year, and in some cases 2019, for university employment office managers and corporate talent leaders. He reports that he is exceeding pre-pandemic activity. ”
ICI appoints executive chairman of New York Life – The Investment Company Institute announced Thursday that New York Life Investment Management CEO Yie-Hsin Hung has been elected chairman of the institute’s board. In a press release, ICI said she was the first woman and person of color to hold the post.