Destabilizing speculation

Iranian presidential candidate announces nuclear deal, Ayatollah’s future is at stake

The list of Iranian candidates for the next president does not have a reasonable height. In this type of “controlled democracy” there is usually tension, suspense and at least limited debate. This time is less than my recent memory.

Almost 600 people threw their hats in the ring. All but seven were disqualified. According to former Iranian diplomat Mehrdad Khonsari, the anger against the critic is unprecedented. President Hassan Rouhani, whose vice-president was struck off the list of candidates, and Sadek Larijani, one of Iran’s most powerful families and disqualified brothers, spoke of the lack of choice. By the way, Larijani is even part of the Council of Guardians, a highly controlled organization that he has accused.

And the consensus of the chair is that the only noticeable name in practice is Ebrahim Raishi. Best friend of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Famous for participating in the execution of 7,000 prisoners after the Iran-Iraq war. Iranian supreme judiciary.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will broadcast live on state television on November 3, 2020 (Photo by Getty Images by the Iranian leader’s Press Office / Distribution / Anador Agency)

“The Iranian government seems to want to get elections for extremists, especially Mr. Raishi,” Murdad Consari told Fox News. He said it was especially important now that Khamenei is older and the inheritance story is getting more regular. Consari wants the best leaders to defend his revolution and protect it by ensuring that all branches of power are in his hands, or in the hands of the “deep nation”. The extremists have already held the judiciary and parliament. They just need a presidency.

“This ensures that the ‘deep state’ leadership that has come to Ayatollah over the next four to eight years is in a key position to dominate Iran’s future,” Consari said. I am.

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There is speculation that the priest, but not the Ayatollah, may be in a hurry to step up to the top position when the Supreme Leader takes over. Or, as Consari says, with the son of the Supreme Leader, Moitaba, “Raishi is on alert,” helping young Khamenei eventually move to his father.

But holding all the levers of strength means that gold always stops in a difficult camp. In the past, top rulers have blamed people like Mohammad Hatami, Hassan Rouhani, and Javad Zarif for the failure. And to sell unpopular policies to the public – policies designed by the best leaders and those around them.

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Consari said the only politician with an “organization” in Iran was an extremist. With reformers and moderates losing their last grip, they can begin to work on building their own machines.

Meanwhile, the vital nuclear deal, which is the most important topic for the international community, will not be compromised by the change of president. The only thing that Consari speculates is that the leaders could withdraw the negotiations to avoid giving them a moderate camp, the Rouhani team, the wings of their cap.

But Mr. Consari hopes that if the extremists take power, global foreign policy will change.

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“I think the most important thing is that Rohani’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Zarif and others, have tended to improve relations with Western Europe and the United States,” he said. declared. .. The leaders blocked the moderates from crossing the nuclear deal, even if they wanted to gain momentum and start the global process of reconciliation.

With a perfectly strong squad, Iran would have no interest in easing tensions between the United States and Israel, Consari said. Rather, Iran will pivot exclusively to Russia and China.

This will likely change many stones around the world.

The United States has a naval base in Bahrain. Can China be one in the Persian Gulf, maybe Iran?

Iranian presidential candidate announces nuclear deal, Ayatollah’s future is at stake

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